Global experience shows that resources of particular fuel type in some country are deemed mastered to the extent when considerable rise of production volumes is close to unlikely, if the produced fuel accounts for some 25% within potential resources. Gas use in Ukraine has already crossed this border – 26.3% of original potential resources. Therefore, notable exploration of gas resources in Ukraine prevent from significant rise in its production.
For this very reason, the explored gas reserves are a strategic task for Ukraine’s gas industry. Optimistic scenario forecasts that extraction of natural gas at the territory of Ukraine will reach 23.5 bn cu. m in 2010, 25.5 bn cu. m in 2015, 26.6 bn cu. m in 2020, and 30.1 bn cu. m in 2030, while pessimistic scenario predicts the following figures: 20.8 bn cu. m in 2010, 23.0 bn cu. m in 2015, 24.6 bn cu. m in 2020, and 26.9 bn cu. m in 2030
Gas production in the Ukrainian sectors of the Black and Azov seas is stated to grow at outstanding tempos, with a 35% rise in gross production of gas in Ukraine by 2030.
Higher production of gas will be ensured by accelerated exploitation of new deposits (by 90-93%) and intensified production, as well as improved development system at available deposits (by 7-10%). Today more than half (57%) of currently explored reserves of oil and gas are considered a hard-to-reach category. Therefore, to increase production, the country should accelerate exploration and transfer significant potential resources of oil and gas into the category of the explored reserves.
In general 20. 6 bn cu. m of gas was extracted in Ukraine since the beginning of 2007. It is by 246.1 mn cu. m or 1.2% less than in the corresponding period of 2006.
In 2007, enterprises within Neftegaz of Ukraine national joint-stock company extracted 19.2 bn cu. m of gas, which was by 94.1 cu. m or 0.5% less as compared to 2006.
In 2007, enterprises within Nadra of Ukraine (Entrails of Ukraine) national joint-stock company along with other enterprises (JVs and companies) extracted 1,380.8 mn cu. m of gas, which was by 152.05 cu. m or 9.9% less as compared to 2006.
Estimated by foreign economic contracts, in 2007 Ukraine was supplied with 168.9 bn cu. m of natural gas (in the corresponding period of 2006 – 184.5 bn cu. m).
Ukrainian consumers in 2007 used 69.8 bn cu. m of natural gas (in the corresponding period of 2006 – 73.9 bn cu. m), including:
by direct consumers – 62.8 bn cu. m (in the corresponding period of 2006 – 65.9 bn cu. m), of which:
consumers under state administration funds (population, communal domestic and budget consumers) – 29.7 bn cu. m,
industrial consumers – 34.2 bn cu. m.
Given the size of the available resource base and projected reserves versus gas production increases, stable development in it can be expected for roughly 90 years meeting the practice of hydrocarbonates extraction in developed states.
There will be two determinants of gas production level in Ukraine in the short and long run:
increased efficiency of hydrocarbons production in the deposits being in service; and
facilitated development of reserves in new deposits.
Taking into account technical and economic studies for the projects prepared by Neftegaz Ukraine National JSC, it is forecast that natural gas production by Ukrainian companies abroad of Ukraine would start in 2010 and will grow reaching some 11.6 bn cu. m per annum in 2030.
Implementation of the projects of gas production beyond Ukraine should run in the following way: involve participation of Ukrainian specialized companies in fulfilling of projects of modernization and construction of oil and gas infrastructure and oil and gas transporting systems, supplies of oil industrial equipment; providing of services in oil and gas field; sharing of experience and exchange in specialists in order to train human resources; as well as providing of technical and information support.
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